There are 100 people in the room of unknown gender to you but either male or female (you cannot see into the room). You have one of them write his or her gender on a slip of paper and put them under the door. If it says "male," do you think that means that almost all the people in the room are male?
(They will likely agree it does not.)
Okay, what if you ask any two of them to write their gender on slips of paper and put them under the door and both say "male"? Is that enough to indicate that most people in the room are male?
(yes/no)
Continue until your student says yes. (I'm assuming you'll get a "yes" at 3 here.)
Reveal that the room was 50/50. There was a 25% chance that any three would have had the same gender. Show all eight M-M-F-style combinations.
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There are 100 people in the room of unknown gender to you but either male or female (you cannot see into the room). You have one of them write his or her gender on a slip of paper and put them under the door. If it says "male," do you think that means that almost all the people in the room are male?
(They will likely agree it does not.)
Okay, what if you ask any two of them to write their gender on slips of paper and put them under the door and both say "male"? Is that enough to indicate that most people in the room are male?
(yes/no)
Continue until your student says yes. (I'm assuming you'll get a "yes" at 3 here.)
Reveal that the room was 50/50. There was a 25% chance that any three would have had the same gender. Show all eight M-M-F-style combinations.