In my slightly informed opinion, no, this is not going to lead to massive bank crashes. The ones that are crashing are ones that were out on the edge of what they have been allowed to do. They are being bought up by the ones that have been more conservative (in a good way). Notice how Bank of America, Suntrust, and First National Bank of Omaha are buying up all these failed banks. Account Holders are going through brief periods of loss of services (including access to their funds) but no one with less than $100,000 in a single account is going to lose any actual money. They will end up with a new bank, and will probably have new atm cards issued to them, but they won't even have to have their checks reprinted.
Credit is already tighter for consumers than it was a few years ago, and I expect that trend to continue. Cheap home loans are gone and they aren't coming back. Quick flip "investment" properties are going to be a thing of the past. But these are all corrections, they were poor ideas in the first place.
Of course without more corrections from the top, this is not going to happen quickly or cleanly. And unless the real core problems of our economy not corrected the slow decline of the last twenty years will continue.
Unless we fix the problems with foreign trade and guest workers we are going to have a very hard time recovering.
Every dollar we send overseas is gone. A dollar spent locally is recycled.
Let me give an example. If I buy a tomato imported from Mexico, that dollar goes to Mexico and does me no more good. If I buy a tomato from a local farmer, he is going to use that dollar to to pay for fertilizer from a local hardware store, who pays a clerk who works in my neighborhood, who buys CDs produced by a local band, who keep people coming into my local bar, where I can buy beer. That local tomato helps keep my local economy going.
The same is true for a guest worker. If I pay a guy from Mexico (I am not picking on Mexico, it is just an example) to mow my lawn or fix my roof, he is spending the minimum he can on an apartment he shares with nine other guys and sending most of the money I just paid him back to Mexico where he can support his wife and three kids in a much better lifestyle than if he worked and lived at home. If he instead immigrates to my neighborhood, all the money I pay him is used to buy a house here and shop and pay taxes here, and send his kids to school here where they can be the person to cure cancer.
Basically we need to choke down on foreign trade. Charge tariffs for imported articles, and find ways to reduce guest workers. If people want to work in the US, they should typically live here.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2008-09-20 04:21 pm (UTC)Credit is already tighter for consumers than it was a few years ago, and I expect that trend to continue. Cheap home loans are gone and they aren't coming back. Quick flip "investment" properties are going to be a thing of the past. But these are all corrections, they were poor ideas in the first place.
Of course without more corrections from the top, this is not going to happen quickly or cleanly. And unless the real core problems of our economy not corrected the slow decline of the last twenty years will continue.
Unless we fix the problems with foreign trade and guest workers we are going to have a very hard time recovering.
Every dollar we send overseas is gone. A dollar spent locally is recycled.
Let me give an example. If I buy a tomato imported from Mexico, that dollar goes to Mexico and does me no more good. If I buy a tomato from a local farmer, he is going to use that dollar to to pay for fertilizer from a local hardware store, who pays a clerk who works in my neighborhood, who buys CDs produced by a local band, who keep people coming into my local bar, where I can buy beer. That local tomato helps keep my local economy going.
The same is true for a guest worker. If I pay a guy from Mexico (I am not picking on Mexico, it is just an example) to mow my lawn or fix my roof, he is spending the minimum he can on an apartment he shares with nine other guys and sending most of the money I just paid him back to Mexico where he can support his wife and three kids in a much better lifestyle than if he worked and lived at home. If he instead immigrates to my neighborhood, all the money I pay him is used to buy a house here and shop and pay taxes here, and send his kids to school here where they can be the person to cure cancer.
Basically we need to choke down on foreign trade. Charge tariffs for imported articles, and find ways to reduce guest workers. If people want to work in the US, they should typically live here.
Anyway, sorry for the sermon.