Date: 2008-10-13 04:53 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jrtom.livejournal.com
Ah, yes. The site I refer to as "election statistics porn". :)

Date: 2008-10-13 01:13 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] galbinus-caeli.livejournal.com
So are the numbers as airbrushed as your typical "men's" magazine?

Date: 2008-10-13 02:05 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] marquiswildbill.livejournal.com
I wouldn't be surprised. 350-187 just seems to be too wide of a spread to me.

Date: 2008-10-13 02:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] galbinus-caeli.livejournal.com
The "those can't possibly be real" argument?

Date: 2008-10-13 02:19 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] marquiswildbill.livejournal.com
Pretty much. I don't think any election has been that one sided. Other sites I've seen with similar numbers are calling states that are barely leaning left for Obama, and I would bet that a few of them are within the margin of error but are still being called. I'm just a cynic like that.

Date: 2008-10-13 02:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] galbinus-caeli.livejournal.com
Like I have said, these numbers are mostly "interesting". It would be interesting if an objective team of political scientists and mathematicians were to analyze the process.

Oh, and the most presidential elections in my lifetime have been very one sided.
2004286 Baby Bush252 Kerry
2000271 Bush the Selected266 Gore
1996379 Clinton159 Kemp
1992301 Clinton191 for Daddy Bush 0 for Perot
1988426 for Bush the Elected111 for Dukakis
1984Reagan 525Mondale 13
1980489 Reagan49 Carter
1976297 Carter240 Ford
1972520 Nixon17 McGovern
1968301 Nixon191 Humphrey46 Wallace

Date: 2008-10-13 08:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] calieber.livejournal.com
I was thinking of '84. Mondale won Minnesota and ... that's it.

Date: 2008-10-13 02:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jrtom.livejournal.com
I don't think so. They're very clear about their methods and sources. You can argue with their models (heh) but at least there's no question about what they are. Really, I should have said "election statistical modeling porn", which would have been funnier anyway. :)

FWIW, their spread is pretty close to what a few other sites are showing. I wouldn't mind seeing a confidence interval, though.

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